Time estimates

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Time estimates

UNREAD_POSTby Sascha » Sat Feb 11, 2012 9:44 am

“I have a very clear picture in my mind about how the new renderer will work, and I don’t expect to run into any serious problems…”

I can’t believe I actually wrote this just a few days ago ;-)

Here’s a terrific piece about why software development task estimations are regularly off by a factor of 2-3 (I found it on Marco Arment’s blog).
“Let's take a hike on the coast from San Francisco to Los Angeles to visit our friends in Newport Beach…”
If you ever wondered why these estimations are always off by orders of magnitude, this is a must (and fun) read.

My theory (and defense for us software developers): If we’d see it more clearly, we’d probably never even start to work on some large-scale software project. It probably takes exactly this kind of blind spot to get involved in software development in the first place.

Don’t worry about current and future F-Sim apps though, but let me rephrase that quote: I’m 100% sure to run into huge problems that will take countless hours (and a couple of night- and weekend shifts) to solve, but I’m confident that I can solve all of them eventually. Just don’t ask me how long it’s going to take, I’m the last person who can answer that :-)
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Re: Time estimates

UNREAD_POSTby Walle2815 » Sat Feb 11, 2012 12:09 pm

Granted ;)
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